8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Mar 2006

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/05/2006

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Main Features
About this Release

MARCH KEY FIGURES

		Mar 06	Feb 06 to Mar 06
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 650.0	0.6
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 657.7	0.3

		Mar Qtr 06	Dec Qtr 05 to Mar Qtr 06
		$m	% change

Turnover, in volume terms
	Trend estimates	51 390.5	0.9
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	51 608.2	1.7

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates
Graph: Quarterly turnover, in volume terms—Trend estimates

MARCH KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0. 6% in March 2006. This follows increases of 0.5% in both February and January 2006.
In March 2006, all states had an increase in the trend estimate. The states with the largest increase were Western Australia (+0.8%), South Australia and Tasmania (both +0.7%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.3% in March 2006. This follows an increase of 0.7% in February 2006 and a revised increase of 1.0% for January 2006.
All states, except South Australia and the Northern Territory, had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The states with the largest increases were Victoria (+0.7%), Tasmania (+0.4%) and New South Wales (+0.3%).

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 11.6% in March 2006 compared with February 2006. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 12.8%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 10.0%.
Australian turnover increased by 5.6% in March 2006 compared with March 2005. Chains and other large retailers increased by 4.2%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 7.4%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover increased by 0.9% in the March quarter 2006. This follows a 0.7% increase in the December quarter 2005. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure increased by 1.7% in the March quarter 2006.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
April 2006	30 May 2006
May 2006	3 July 2006
June 2006	2 August 2006
July 2006	30 August 2006
August 2006	3 October 2006
September 2006	2 November 2006

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for March 2006 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	17 339.2	134.8
Change from preceding month ($m)	1 804.4	38.7
% change from preceding month (%)	11.6	0.3

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been moderate trend growth for the last five months. Hospitality and services had moderate growth in March 2006 after five months of strong growth and Other retailing has had five months of strong growth. Food retailing and Department stores have had moderate trend growth over the last three months.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been four months of moderate trend growth. There has been moderate trend growth in Victoria (at least 15 months), New South Wales (seven months), Tasmania (three months) and Western Australia (three months).

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been moderate trend growth for the last three months. There has been strong growth in Western Australia and Queensland for four and three months respectively, while the Australian Capital Territory had moderate growth in March 2006 after three months of strong growth. All other published states had moderate trend growth in March 2006 after periods of weak or moderate growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend has been weak for the last three months. New South Wales has had a decline in the trend estimate for seven months. Victoria, Queensland and South Australia had weak trend growth in March 2006, and the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory had no growth. By contrast, Western Australia and Tasmania have had strong trend growth for at least six months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been weak trend growth for ten months. New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have had weak trend growth or been in decline over this period. The Northern Territory has had strong trend growth for eight months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend has continued to be in decline for 11 months. The Australian Capital Territory was the only state with strong trend growth in March 2006. South Australia has had moderate trend growth in the last four months, while all other states have been flat or in decline for at least four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

There has been strong growth in the trend for the last five months. All published states, except New South Wales and South Australia, have had strong trend growth for at least four months.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate trend growth for the last four months. Over the last seven months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has mostly been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been moderate or strong growth in the trend for twelve months. Victoria and South Australia have had strong growth for four and three months respectively. New South Wales and the Northern Territory had weak trend growth in March 2006 following periods of strong trend growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been moderate trend growth for five months. Food retailing and Other retailing have had moderate or strong growth for 12 and five months respectively. Department stores have had moderate trend growth for two months. Hospitality and services had weak trend growth in March 2006 after six months of strong or moderate growth. Clothing and soft good retailing has been in decline for seven months.

VICTORIA

There has been moderate trend growth for four months. Hospitality and services and Other retailing have had strong trend growth over the last four months, while Food retailing has had moderate trend growth for at least the last 15 months. Clothing and soft good retailing has had weak trend growth over the last three months, while Recreational good retailing has been in decline for the last ten months.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate trend growth for 13 months. There has been strong trend growth in Department stores (three months) and Other retailing (six months). Hospitality and services has slowed to moderate growth in the last two months following a long period of strong growth.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been moderate growth in the trend estimate for four months. Other retailing had moderate growth in March 2006 after eight months of strong growth. Hospitality and services has had three months of strong trend growth. Clothing and soft good retailing has had weak growth for six months and Household good retailing continues to be in decline.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been strong growth in the trend estimate for three months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Other retailing have had strong trend growth for at least the last four months. Hospitality and services had strong growth in March 2006, following three months of moderate growth.

TASMANIA

The trend growth has been strong to moderate for the past 11 months, with moderate growth in February and March 2006. Clothing and soft good retailing has had strong trend growth for over 12 months. Hospitality and services has had moderate trend growth in the last two months after six months of strong growth. Food retailing has had moderate growth in the last three months.